As we're slowly but steadily descend into upfront territory, and the fates of many of our beloved TV shows are yet to be determined, let us, like every year, take a look at the chances of the several scripted shows that still are on the bubble, and how great the chances are of them seeing another season.
As every year, I'll do this network by network.
A few weeks ago, there were reports of ABC prepping some early renewals. Yet strangely, the Alphabet, up to this point, still has not renewed any shows for the coming season. But what transpired in those reports is probably pretty accurate. No one really expects shows like "Revenge", "Grey's Anatomy", "Once Upon A Time" or "Castle" to go away. On the comedy side, "Modern Family", "The Middle","Happy Endings" and "Suburgatory" are all locks for next season.
"Private Practice" is likely to return as well, albeit for a shorter, 13-episode final season, as it was reported a few days ago. And midseason entry "Scandal" has a pretty good chance of returning as well.
"Body of Proof" and "GCB", on the other hand, are not a there yet at all. Both are ABC Studios production, which might help their chances, and "Body of Proof" sells well internationally, and "GCB" fits into ABC's "soap corner", which loses "Desperate Housewives". However, it'll probably come down to the quality of the pilots. And buzz is that ABC has a lot to choose from, so it might be a hard sell after all. "Cougar Town" is fighting an uphill battle for renewal at this point, but a certain cancellation it's not - yet.
"Missing" and "The River" are most probably done after this season, and "Pan Am" is not looking good, either.
With CBS, it's pretty much the same every year. The Eye has renewed a big bunch of its shows already, which leaves only little room for new pilots. Shows on the bubble, therefore, often have a hard time earning renewal, simply because CBS needs the space to launch new shows. The biggest bubble shows are of course "CSI:Miami" and "CSI:NY". And consensus is that probably only one of them will survive, as the original "CSI" has already scored a renewal. Which one will stay and which one will go is very hard to say. Reliable sources are split in their opinion. My own personal one: "Miami" will stay", "NY" will go, based on ratings. But it's really not much more than a guess.
Better chances for renewal has another procedural, "Unforgettable", which is likely to return at this point. "Rules of Engagement" has already defied the odds several times, so another season is not out of the cards, but I think it's less likely than before.
Chances of another season of "A Gifted Man" are slim, especially if "Applebaum" gets picked up, which has Rachelle Lefevre in the lead. Having to replace the lead of a pilot is never a good thing.
FOX has already decided on its most prominent bubble show. "Fringe" will be back for a final round of 13 episodes.
"Alcatraz" and "The Finder" probably won't be back for more, as won't "Breaking In" and "I Hate My Teenage Daughter", with the latter having his summer run scrapped just days ago. "Touch" on the other hand, while not a big ratings performer, is still not being ruled out, as it might sell well overseas, with a big launch of the pilot episode in several key markets back in March. But it's certainly not a lock at this point.
A few shows have already scored a renewal over at NBC. And some more will certainly be back in the new season. "The Office" and "Parks & Recreation" are pretty much locks for next season, and chances are pretty good that "Parenthood" and "30 Rock" will be back, too, together with "Community" and "Up All Night".
Things look a lot less promising for midseason entry "Awake", which continuously fails to pull in decent numbers. Chances of a renewal are considered slim, and "Whitney", which had a bit of a rebound in ratings lately, is getting back on track for a renewal, but it's still not a certainty. "Harry's Law" is still on the fence, with a prediction being tough, "The Firm" is over and out.
Well, after issuing renewals to "The Vampire Diaries", "Supernatural" and "90210" yesterday, there are still five shows awaiting their fate. The buzz is that "Gossip Girl" is likely to come back for a shorter final season. "Hart of Dixie" has a good chance of renewal as well, as does "Nikita", which has great DVR numbers, sells well internationally and, while scoring rather mediocre demo ratings, is one of the network's top shows in total viewers, and does so on Fridays.
"The Secret Circle" and "Ringer", however, will probably not be back. "Ringer" has performed poorly, and even though the ratings (and storylines) have improved towards the end, it's still no winner. That, and the fact that Sarah Michelle Gellar is pregnant with her second child, might prove the final nails in that coffin. As for "The Secret Circle", it will probably be a casualty of The CW's several promising pilots.
Well, that's it. Like every year, things might change fast over the next few days, and this year, I had a few less sources to work with. But we'll see. In two weeks, we'll know for sure.